Round of 64East RegionKeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Michigan State

25-5 · Big Ten Conference

#3 seedT-Rank #34
VS
North Dakota State

25-7 · The Summit League

#14 seedT-Rank #201

Win Probability (Log5)

89%

Michigan State

11%

North Dakota State

Predicted Score

79–66

Spread: Michigan State -13.4

Historical Upset Rate

15%

14-seeds beat 3-seeds historically

Head-to-Head Comparison

Michigan StateSTATNorth Dakota State
25-5Record25-7
78.7PPG81.3
67.0Opp PPG70.4
+11.7Pt Diff+10.8
W5StreakW2
#34T-Rank#201
112.2Adj Offense108.9
95.6Adj Defense111.7
67.8Tempo64.7
0.5WAB-2.4
0.000SOS0.000

Shot Charts

Michigan State

CORNER 337.7%26/69CORNER 332.9%28/85WING 326.8%15/56WING 333.3%22/66TOP 337.5%3/8MID-RANGE43.1%90/209MID-RANGE36.7%91/248MID-RANGE31.9%30/94MID-RANGE35.4%40/113PAINT70.8%680/96160.1%Below AvgFG% vs. League AvgAbove Avg

North Dakota State

CORNER 335.8%19/53CORNER 336.1%26/72WING 329.8%31/104WING 332.3%41/127TOP 347.1%8/17MID-RANGE31.1%52/167MID-RANGE41.6%84/202MID-RANGE41.7%48/115MID-RANGE43.4%56/129PAINT70.1%665/94954.2%Below AvgFG% vs. League AvgAbove Avg

Recent Form

Michigan State

W5
WWWWW
Last 5: 5-0
PPG: 78.4
Opp PPG: 68.8
Margin: +9.6

North Dakota State

W2
WWLWW
Last 5: 4-1
PPG: 80.6
Opp PPG: 67.4
Margin: +13.2

Tempo & Style Matchup

Michigan State

BalancedAverage tempo
Adj Offense112.2 (#60)
Adj Defense95.6 (#19)
Adj Tempo67.8

North Dakota State

Offense-firstSlow tempo
Adj Offense108.9 (#103)
Adj Defense111.7 (#329)
Adj Tempo64.7

Tempo Matchup

Michigan State wants to play faster (3.1 possessions/game difference).

Michigan State Off (#60)North Dakota State Def (#329)
North Dakota State Off (#103)Michigan State Def (#19)
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