Game Predictions

Win probabilities and predicted scores using the Log5 model with Torvik efficiency ratings. Updated Mar 7, 2026.

Sat, Nov 29

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Northern Illinois vs Bellarmine Knights
49%
70-72-1.9

Mon, Dec 1

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Eastern Illinois vs Blackburn Beavers*
26%
67-75-7.7

Fri, Dec 5

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Florida A&M vs Barber Scotia BARBER SCOTIA*
14%
64-77-13.3

Sat, Jan 24

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central Eagles
29%
70-74-4.6
Northwestern State vs East Texas A&M Lions
64%
69-67+2.2

Sun, Jan 25

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Saint Francis @ New Haven Chargers*
14%
67-77-10.2
Purdue University Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis Jaguars*
46%
75-75-0.1
Evansville vs Southern Illinois Salukis*
37%
70-74-4.3

Mon, Jan 26

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Long Island vs Wagner Seahawks
46%
65-67-2.2
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State Texans
65%
72-67+4.8
Alabama A&M @ Prairie View A&M Panthers
48%
76-75+1.4
Coppin State vs Howard Bison
20%
64-75-11.1
Lamar vs East Texas A&M Lions
71%
73-68+4.5

Thu, Jan 29

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe Warhawks*
39%
74-76-2.0

Sat, Jan 31

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State Bulldogs
56%
74-71+2.9

Sat, Feb 14

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Morgan State @ South Carolina State Bulldogs
37%
71-73-2.1

Sat, Mar 7

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Saint Louis @ George Mason Patriots
33%
73-77-3.3
Wake Forest vs California Golden Bears
76%
75-69+5.9
New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State Owls
69%
78-74+4.3
New Mexico @ Utah State Aggies
46%
77-76+0.7
Florida Atlantic @ Wichita State Shockers
39%
74-76-1.8
Purdue vs Wisconsin Badgers*
95%
79-65+14.4
Maine @ NJIT Highlanders*
38%
68-71-2.2
Colorado State vs Boise State Broncos
34%
68-73-5.2
Florida @ Kentucky Wildcats
26%
76-79-2.7
Syracuse vs Pittsburgh Panthers
24%
71-80-8.8
Central Arkansas vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
22%
63-72-8.9
Baylor vs Utah Utes
75%
76-72+4.1
Wyoming @ San José State Spartans*
43%
71-72-0.8
Ohio State vs Indiana Hoosiers*
92%
80-66+13.2
Towson vs Hampton Pirates
81%
72-64+7.6
Furman @ Samford Bulldogs
41%
75-77-1.3
Marist @ Quinnipiac Bobcats
43%
68-69-0.9
Northern Iowa @ Bradley Braves
34%
70-73-3.0
Louisiana State vs Texas A&M Aggies*
82%
76-68+7.9
Duke vs North Carolina Tar Heels
92%
79-72+6.9
California Polytechnic State vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
53%
72-72-0.3
Abilene Christian vs UT Arlington Mavericks*
41%
70-73-3.1
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State Bengals
51%
70-68+1.3
California State University, Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge Matadors
32%
69-73-3.7
Grand Canyon vs Fresno State Bulldogs*
80%
78-71+7.4
North Dakota State vs Omaha Mavericks*
46%
73-75-1.9
Providence @ Georgetown Hoyas
51%
70-68+1.3
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena Saints
57%
69-66+2.9
Auburn @ Alabama Crimson Tide
41%
81-78+3.0
Oklahoma @ Texas Longhorns*
79%
78-68+9.4
Elon @ William & Mary Tribe
46%
78-78-0.2
Mercer vs Western Carolina Catamounts
60%
73-71+1.7
Southern Utah vs California Baptist Lancers
48%
73-74-1.5
Minnesota vs Northwestern Wildcats
39%
63-67-3.6
Morehead State @ Tennessee State Tigers
48%
71-71+0.5
Portland @ San Francisco Dons
6%
63-79-16.0
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
64%
75-70+4.7
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech Trailblazers
74%
74-67+7.4
Nevada vs Air Force Falcons*
90%
77-65+11.6
Idaho vs Sacramento State Hornets*
35%
71-76-4.8
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
22%
68-75-7.0
Texas Tech @ BYU Cougars*
88%
80-67+13.6
Arizona @ Colorado Buffaloes*
88%
81-68+13.7
Oregon vs Washington Huskies
77%
75-70+5.4
the Pacific vs Seattle U Redhawks*
26%
69-77-7.9
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
20%
64-71-7.2

Sun, Mar 8

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington Seahawks*
20%
67-74-7.7
Colgate @ Lehigh Mountain Hawks
57%
72-69+2.8
High Point vs Winthrop Eagles
70%
76-72+4.5
Memphis @ Tulane Green Wave
86%
81-69+12.9
South Florida vs Charlotte 49ers*
61%
74-72+1.8
Drexel @ Monmouth Hawks
66%
74-69+5.1
Maryland vs Illinois Fighting Illini*
91%
78-66+11.8
East Carolina @ UAB Blazers
38%
75-77-2.3
Tulsa vs Temple Owls
38%
73-77-4.2
Rice vs UTSA Roadrunners
67%
76-73+3.6
Wisconsin-Green Bay vs Northern Kentucky Norse
41%
70-74-3.5
East Tennessee State vs TBD*
50%
72-73-0.8
Michigan State @ Michigan Wolverines
34%
70-72-1.6
Iowa @ Nebraska Cornhuskers*
81%
81-70+10.5
Houston Christian @ New Orleans Privateers
43%
72-73-0.4
Troy vs TBD*
69%
73-69+3.9
Merrimack vs TBD*
39%
65-68-3.5
Portland State vs TBD*
31%
71-77-6.2
Oregon State vs TBD*
70%
72-68+4.3
Fairfield @ TBD*
26%
68-74-5.5
Hofstra vs TBD*
53%
70-70-0.1
Northwestern State @ Nicholls Colonels*
18%
66-75-8.6
Marshall vs TBD*
46%
71-73-1.9
Santa Clara vs TBD*
76%
76-70+6.2

Mon, Mar 9

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Alabama State vs Alcorn State Braves
80%
75-67+7.6
Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi vs TBD*
52%
74-74-0.5
Wright State vs TBD*
53%
75-75-0.1
Montana vs Northern Colorado Bears
52%
75-76-0.6
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling Tigers*
5%
60-77-16.5
Gonzaga vs TBD*
98%
85-66+19.2
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris Colonials
28%
65-70-4.8
Weber State @ Eastern Washington Eagles
65%
77-72+5.0
Vermont vs TBD*
56%
68-68+0.6

Tue, Mar 10

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Prairie View A&M vs TBD*
15%
69-82-13.2
Long Island vs Mercyhurst Lakers
73%
72-67+4.7
Texas at Arlington vs TBD*
53%
75-75-0.2
Jackson State vs TBD*
20%
67-77-10.2

Wed, Mar 11

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Bethune-Cookman vs TBD*
32%
68-74-5.7
Delaware State @ Morgan State Bears
46%
72-72+0.3
Florida A&M vs TBD*
14%
64-77-13.3

Thu, Mar 12

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Massachusetts @ Miami (OH) RedHawks*
45%
72-72-0.3
Toledo vs Bowling Green Falcons*
52%
76-76-0.4
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern Tigers
23%
69-75-6.6
Akron vs Buffalo Bulls*
62%
74-72+2.2
Norfolk State vs South Carolina State Bulldogs
73%
73-68+5.3
Ohio @ Kent State Golden Flashes
44%
72-73-0.7
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central Eagles
18%
68-77-8.4

Fri, Mar 13

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Howard vs TBD*
36%
71-75-4.6

Sat, Mar 14

MatchupWin ProbPredicted ScoreSpread
Cornell @ Yale Bulldogs
24%
75-82-6.7
Harvard vs Pennsylvania Quakers
57%
72-71+1.0