NCAA Tournament Bracket

2025-26 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship · Win probabilities via Log5 model

East Region

South Region

West Region

Midwest Region

Rd 32

TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD

S16

TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD

Elite 8

TBD
TBD

Final Four & Championship

Final Four

TBD
TBD

Final Four

TBD
TBD

Championship

TBD
TBD

First Four — Dayton, OH

Bracket Analytics

! Upset Watch

Games where the lower seed ranks higher in T-Rank efficiency or the matchup is closer than the seed line suggests.

7 Miami (Florida) vs 10 MissouriWest
T-Rank: #60 vs #55·Win: 4951
8 Villanova vs 9 Utah StateWest
T-Rank: #63 vs #57·Win: 4852
5 Vanderbilt vs 12 McNeese StateSouth
T-Rank: #67 vs #74·Win: 5248
8 Clemson vs 9 IowaSouth
T-Rank: #37 vs #45·Win: 5545
7 Saint Mary's College of California vs 10 Texas A&M University, College StationSouth
T-Rank: #29 vs #17·Win: 4456

Biggest Mismatches

R64 games with the largest T-Rank gap between teams.

1 Duke vs 16 SienaEast
99%
1 Arizona vs 16 Long IslandWest
97%
2 Iowa State vs 15 Tennessee StateMidwest
98%
2 Purdue vs 15 Queens University of CharlotteWest
96%

Region Power Rankings

Regions ranked by average T-Rank of all teams. Lower is tougher.

1

South

Avg T-Rank: 72 · 1-seed: Florida

2

Midwest

Avg T-Rank: 82 · 1-seed: Michigan

3

East

Avg T-Rank: 98 · 1-seed: Duke

4

West

Avg T-Rank: 106 · 1-seed: Arizona

Toughest Paths to Sweet 16

1-seeds ranked by the combined T-Rank strength of opponents they could face in R64 + R32.

SouthSouth

Avg opp T-Rank: 41 · Clemson (#37), Iowa (#45)

MidwestMidwest

Avg opp T-Rank: 79 · Georgia (#44), Saint Louis (#114)

ArizonaWest

Avg opp T-Rank: 148 · LIU (#323), Villanova (#63), Utah State (#57)

DukeEast

Avg opp T-Rank: 191 · Siena (#321), TCU (#61)