NCAA Tournament Bracket, title odds, and region pressure.
Start with the full board, then work from the teams with the cleanest six-game path. Title probabilities, upset alerts, and First Four routes are built directly into the bracket experience.
Games on board
67
32 Round of 64 matchups
First Four
4
Play-in winners flow into the main bracket
Title favorite
Houston
19.1% title equity
Toughest region
South
Avg T-Rank 68
First Four
Dayton decides the open lines
These winners feed directly into the South, West, and Midwest regions. Use the picker view if you want those play-in picks to cascade into the full bracket automatically.
Immediate Trouble Spots
Round 1 upset pressure
7 Miami (Florida) vs 10 Missouri
WestFavorite win rate: 51%
Seed gap: 3
T-Rank gap: 5
8 Villanova vs 9 Utah State
WestFavorite win rate: 52%
Seed gap: 1
T-Rank gap: 6
5 Vanderbilt vs 12 McNeese State
SouthFavorite win rate: 52%
Seed gap: 7
T-Rank gap: 7
7 Saint Mary's College of California vs 10 Texas A&M University, College Station
SouthFavorite win rate: 56%
Seed gap: 3
T-Rank gap: 12
Choose a view
Read the tournament board or switch into pick mode to build your own path.
East Region
Rd 64
Elite 8
West Region
Elite 8
South Region
Rd 64
Elite 8
Midwest Region
Elite 8
East Region
Rd 64
Elite 8
South Region
Rd 64
Elite 8
West Region
Rd 64
Elite 8
Midwest Region
Rd 64
Elite 8
Final Four & Championship
Bracket Analytics
Championship Probability
Simulated via recursive Log5 model. Probabilities based on Torvik barthag ratings.
| Team | Seed | Region | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 2 | South | 98% | 76% | 56% | 46% | 29.5% | 19.1% |
| Duke | 1 | East | 99% | 78% | 50% | 39% | 27.0% | 16.1% |
| Tennessee | 6 | Midwest | 86% | 78% | 49% | 34% | 20.5% | 12.5% |
| Gonzaga | 3 | West | 97% | 70% | 49% | 36% | 20.4% | 10.8% |
| Kansas | 4 | East | 95% | 62% | 29% | 20% | 12.1% | 6.0% |
| Alabama | 4 | Midwest | 94% | 63% | 43% | 20% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
| Iowa State | 2 | Midwest | 98% | 60% | 30% | 18% | 9.5% | 4.9% |
| Purdue | 2 | West | 96% | 68% | 29% | 18% | 7.5% | 2.9% |
| Illinois | 3 | South | 96% | 57% | 20% | 13% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| Arizona | 1 | West | 97% | 65% | 39% | 16% | 6.1% | 2.1% |
| UCLA | 7 | East | 77% | 48% | 31% | 11% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Kentucky | 7 | Midwest | 82% | 37% | 17% | 9% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Florida | 1 | South | 96% | 58% | 38% | 13% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| St. John's | 5 | East | 86% | 36% | 13% | 8% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Michigan | 1 | Midwest | 95% | 62% | 26% | 9% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Texas Tech | 5 | Midwest | 86% | 34% | 19% | 7% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
! Upset Watch
Games where the lower seed ranks higher in T-Rank efficiency or the matchup is closer than the seed line suggests.
Biggest Mismatches
R64 games with the largest T-Rank gap between teams.
Region Power Rankings
Regions ranked by average T-Rank of all teams. Lower is tougher.
South
Avg T-Rank: 68 · 1-seed: Florida
Midwest
Avg T-Rank: 82 · 1-seed: Michigan
East
Avg T-Rank: 88 · 1-seed: Duke
West
Avg T-Rank: 101 · 1-seed: Arizona
Value Picks & Trap Games
Value = (Seed × 18) − T-Rank. Positive = underseeded, negative = overseeded.
Underseeded (Value)
Overseeded (Trap)
Tempo Clashes
R64 matchups with the biggest pace differential. Games above 5.0 are significant mismatches.
Toughest Paths to Sweet 16
1-seeds ranked by the combined T-Rank strength of opponents they could face in R64 + R32.
Avg opp T-Rank: 41 · Clemson (#37), Iowa (#45)
Avg opp T-Rank: 79 · Georgia (#44), Saint Louis (#114)
Avg opp T-Rank: 136 · Siena (#321), Ohio State (#26), TCU (#61)
Avg opp T-Rank: 148 · LIU (#323), Villanova (#63), Utah State (#57)
Chalk Probability
Probability that all higher seeds win R64 in each region. Lower = more upset-prone.
Midwest
1-seed:
35.4%
Chalk-friendly
East
1-seed: Duke
25.2%
Chalk-friendly
West
1-seed: Arizona
14.9%
Chalk-friendly
South
1-seed:
5.1%
Chalk-friendly